Russia
What Is Going on Comrades?
Unless you are completely off the grid, chances are you did not escape the media frenzy about the latest drama unfolding in Russia.
The ability to understand news and updates from outside the English-speaking world has helped me piece together the puzzle more accurately, at least I think so. For the most part, the story about the man who orchestrated the attempted but ultimately aborted emergency coup is factually correct, even if somewhat mundane.
Yevgeny Prigozhin who was born in 1961, was indeed caught stealing when only 18 but given a suspended sentence. Two years later he and a few of his accomplices were caught robbing apartments in the affluent neighbourhoods and this time Yevgeny was sent to 12 years imprisonment, but he was pardoned in 1988, and released in 1990 having spent total of nine years in prison.
Having not lost his entrepreneurial spirit, once a free man, Yevgeny started his first legal venture — a hot dog business with the help of his mother and stepfather. As the Soviet Union was collapsing and, on its ruins, a ruthless form of early capitalism started to emerge, Yevgeny entered many businesses, including hospitality.
It was his restaurant business that brought him into close contact with the capo di tutti i capi — Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin when, in 2001, Yevgeny served Putin and French president Jacques Chirac food when they were dining at New Island. To diversify his contacts, Yevgeny made sure to serve US President George W. Bush in 2002.
In any case, throughout the 2000s Prigozhin grew closer to Putin, a relationship that proved beneficial to both parties. Prigozhin became obscenely rich from winning numerous government contracts, and in 2012, he received a contract to supply meals to the Russian military.
Amongst other things, that same year Prigozhin moved his family to his compound in St. Petersburg which included a basketball court and a helicopter pad. He also bought himself a private jet and a 115-foot yacht. Not bad for a former thief and a hot dog maker, don’t you think?
Anyway, one can only fly his jets and sail his yachts for so long … something more was needed. Besides, the capo di tutti i cappi had certain jobs that needed to be done in a manner that, at least officially, cannot be linked to the country’s official army or to him.
Enter the Wagner Group, otherwise known as a private, mercenary army. In September 2022, Prigozhin said that he had founded the Wagner Group specifically to support Russian forces in the war in Donbas in 2014, but the Group had been operating in many regions in Africa and the Middle East.
In essence, by ensuring that Prigozhin wins lucrative contracts that made him not only super-rich but most importantly super-loyal, Putin funded a mercenary army led by the loyal Prigozhin that is separate and outside of the regular Russian military, in order to participate in conflicts and train troops around the world so that Russia can operate in places like Syria and various places in Africa without those actions being attributable to the Russian military.
A smoke and mirrors setting familiar to all capos since time immemorial. And it worked. For a time. A long time. Including in February last year when the war in Ukraine started.
The Wagner Group was one of the key units that did lots of fighting on the front lines, and since they are very well funded, trained and experienced, they had lots of military success while the regular Russian military struggled. One of the reasons the Wagner Group was so successful is that they were/are not subject to various rules and regulations the regular army is.
In addition, for a long time, they were able to recruit convicts. Once a convict himself, Prigozhin would go to the penal colonies around Russia and offer those with lengthy sentences handed to them for serious crimes, to join the Wagner Group for six or so months after which they go home as a free, pardoned man. Provided you remain alive, of course.
Also, the Wagner Group not only paid their men much better than regular Russian military pay their recruits, but it also trained and equipped them much better. As a result of all those factors, the Wagner Group became a highly trained, skilled and motivated group of brutal mercenaries where those that retreat were/are shot in the same manner as was done in Stalin’s time. It was one of the things Prigozhin openly told those he was recruiting in prisons — if they retreat they will be shot. Another thing the Wagner Group is known for is that they execute defectors and those that badmouth them after they leave.
So, it was the Wagner Group that was fighting over a city in Eastern Ukraine called Bakhmut for about eight months which, as it happened, was longer than the Battle of Stalingrad, and a few weeks ago they managed to force out the Ukrainians. However, they took (and inflicted) very heavy casualties and they needed to leave the front lines to recover, replenish their losses and retrain their units.
In the background of all that, the animosities between Prigozhin and the Wagner group and the regular Russian army were brewing for some time.
Russian regular army and Ministry of Defense had a problem with the independent nature of the Wagner Group that was not under their control, while Prigozhin and the Wagner Group criticized the army brass; the minister of defence (Sergei Shoigu) and the chief of general staff (Valery Gerasimov) for their incompetence, including not providing enough ammunition.
The battle of words was going on for some months and in public — a previously unheard of or even imaginable occurrence. Especially from someone battling on the same side. The conflict reached the boiling point when Prigozhin was filmed standing in front of his soldiers’ corpses screaming that those men have died because of the Ministry of Defense’s incompetence.
Against this background and according to Prigozhin, when the Wagner Group started returning from Bakhmut’s line, they found mines on the road on the territory controlled by the Russian army.
According also to Prigozhin, when they sent engineers to deal with the mines, they came under fire from the Russian army. They responded to the fire, encircled the unit that was firing on them, detained the colonel in charge of the unit and administered the treatment they usually do, including filming. Despite the torture the colonel refused to say why he gave the order to fire on Wagner, except that he had a deep personal antipathy towards you.
However, lots of people saw that as the escalation of conflict between the Ministry of Defense and the Wagner Group.
Be that as it may, the fact is that Prigozhin claimed that the Russian military had dropped bombs on his units on Russian-controlled territory after which he decided to, in his words, deal with the defence minister and the chief of staff once and for all. And as a man of action, he ordered his troops to march straight to the place where those two individuals reside — the capital Moscow. On the way, captured the major city called Rostov-on-Don and they proceeded towards Moscow avoiding other major cities.
One other thing occurred — Prigozhin changed his reason for such drastic action.
While his original explanation was that the Wagner Group was attacked by the Russian Army, he stated that they wanted to disband my unit, meaning the Army wanted to disband the Wagner Group and in retaliation, they decided to march on Moscow. A march Prigozhin called march for justice.
Yes, that was exactly what he called it.
So, the Wagner got to about 150 to 200 km from Moscow, meaning they reached the Moscow region, BUT in the last few minutes, they decided to stop advancing towards the capital and return to where they were stationed.
Given that, in the meantime, the mayor of Moscow suspended any movements in Moscow and ordered everyone to stay home, and that Putin came on national TV and said, rather angrily, that what is happening is a mutiny which will be severely punished, it is more than reasonable to conclude that the whole ordeal is nowhere near done.
Essentially when arms are taken against one’s own country, particularly in Russia — things are not looking good.
While the situation had been de-escalated swiftly and Prigozhin carted to Belarus, thanks to the ever-obedient Aleksandr Lukashenko, mostly to prevent Ukrainians from taking advantage of the situation, this is only a reprieve.
The Russian president is more than aware of the damage done to his image of a strong leader, a critical requirement for any Russian leader.
What is more, the Wagner Group is by no means the only private army in Russia.
Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya, who is presently loyal to Putin, has between 30 and 70 000 troops, including reservists, who are entirely loyal to him.
There is also a National Guard Putin had been building for years under his loyalists. So, there are a few private armies in Russia that, in a situation like this, could potentially be vying for the leadership.
Be reminded that the private, mercenary armies are by no means a Russian invention or even a speciality — various countries around the world have been experimenting with this model, mostly because it is cheaper to run than the national army, but also because it is handy to have troops ready and willing to do any kind of dirty work without it being attributed to or held against the national army and thus country itself.
So, is this the end of Putin?
Well, no. At least not fairly soon.
For one, Putin certainly knew every detail about the ongoing issues between the Wagner Group and the Russian regular army, but he had not said a word, not publicly at least, until now. Secondly, Putin had come and stayed in power for as long as he had because he swiftly and effectively dealt with anyone that might threaten him. Whether or not he will remain in power depends on many factors, including;
- the outcome of the war in Ukraine, and
- the final destiny of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group.
Lastly, Russia has a lot of nuclear weapons and it is never a good idea to wrack havoc in which war-lords fight over the nuclear suitcase.
If I am a betting person I would say the odds Putin tumbles or cements his power even more are fifty-fifty.
So, comrades what is going on?
Not so long ago you had a formidable army that kicked Nazis out of Europe. It seems light-years away from mercenary units funded by criminals.
